Turf to Dirt Angle Works Best
Horseracing Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both of Saturday's three-year-old
Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses that raced on the turf in their
previous start. One was favored at Aqueduct while the other was the sixth
choice in the betting at Santa Anita.
Awesome Act was favored in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes despite not having raced
since November 7, 2009. His most recent effort was a fourth-place finish
in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last November.
The chestnut colt came into the race with only a maiden turf victory under his
belt in six career starts. He also had never been on conventional dirt with
five grass races and one start on Polytrack in England.
Still, the public made him the 5-2 favorite in the 10-horse field and the
$240,000 yearling purchase did not disappoint winning by 1 1/4-lengths in 1:43
4/5 for the 1 1/16-miles.
The race, for all intents and purposes, was over approaching the top of the
stretch when jockey Julien Leparoux not only swept four-wide to confront the
early pacesetters, he also looked behind to see if any other horses would
present a challenge through the lane.
Only one, the second-place finisher Yawanna Twist, came within three-lengths
of the winner and the two colts combined for a $39.60 exacta, a very high
price considering they were the top two choices in the betting.
The race set up for the two closers after Wow Wow Wow stormed to the lead from
post 10, zipping the early fractions in 22 4/5 and 46 3/5 seconds - extremely
fast numbers for a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. In fact, the three horses that
were first, second and third after the first half-mile ended up eighth, sixth
and ninth, respectively.
For those fans quick to add Awesome Act to their Derby lists, don't forget the
fast early pace helped him immeasurably. In addition, not a single horse in
the field, including Awesome Act himself, had ever finished 'in the money' in
a graded stakes race. It's also hard to forget the fact that only one Gotham
winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby and that was the mighty
Secretariat.
On the positive side, it was his first career race on dirt and he seemed to
handle it with aplomb. Coming over from Europe and winning off the long layoff
was also impressive and his pedigree says 10 furlongs is easily attainable.
His sire Awesome Again won the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic, while his dam,
Houdini's Honey, is a full sister to Coup de Genie, France's 1993 champion
two-year-old filly. Moreover, Houdini's Honey's half-brother Machiavellian,
sired Street Cry - the father of 07 Derby winner, Street Sense.
Is Awesome Act a Kentucky Derby-winning candidate? No question, but he also
must improve by leaps and bounds in the Wood Memorial to be taken seriously as
a legitimate contender. In addition, the field he'll face in four weeks will
be ten times better than the horses he beat last Saturday.
ALPHIE'S BET - THE RIGHT BET IN THE SHAM
If one was lucky enough to watch the replays of Alphie's Bet's previous three
races, then cashing in on his $19.00 win price in the Sham Stakes was like
taking candy from a baby.
The California-bred colt closed like a bandit in his second start (December 5,
2009) running his final furlong in 11 3/5 seconds. He finished fourth that
day, but trainer Alexis Barba thought so much of his performance she not only
stretched out the son of Tribal Rule to 1 1/16-miles, but placed him in the
$100,000 California Breeders' Challenge.
Dead last approaching the top of the stretch, Alphie's Bet swung out eight-
wide through the lane running his final 2 1/2 furlongs in 29 3/5 seconds to
get up for second. The winner was the undefeated Caracortado, who came right
back to take the Robert B. Lewis in his next start.
Sent off as the 6-5 favorite in his follow-up race, Alphie's Bet took to the
turf with a smashing 1 1/4-length last-to-first score after a slow start from
the gate. But it wasn't just the victory that solidified his reputation as a
solid closer it was the manner in which he overpowered the eight-horse field.
Mired in last place through the stretch and hung out to dry in the 10-path,
the bay colt unleashed his powerful strides through the lane to win going
away. The final time of 1:38 1/5 for the mile was not very imposing but
running his final furlong in 10 4/5 seconds was nothing short of incredible.
Two more signs that showed he was ready to run the race of his life came early
in the mornings of February 20 and 28. After four slow workouts between late
January and mid-February, Alphie's Bet burst out with a pair of bullet works
going six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on the 20th and five furlongs in 1:00 flat
eight days later.
Still, the big question heading into the Sham was how he would be able to loop
a much stronger field in a race devoid of early speed. The answer? He didn't
have to!
After beginning all four of his prior races in either last or next-to-last
place, Alphie's Bet was sixth in the early going. In fact, he ran his first
half-mile in 48 2/5 - two full seconds (or 10 lengths) faster than his
previous two races!
Through the stretch, the Sham was his to lose after passing The Program and a
tiring Nextdoorneighbor. He eventually drew clew to win by 2 1/4-lengths over
the late closing Setsuko.
What was even more impressive than winning the Grade 3 event was the fact he
ran every quarter-mile in under 24 3/5 seconds. His final three furlongs was
clocked in 36 seconds flat, including a final 12-second eighth of a mile.
Tremendous numbers considering he was much closer to the pace this past
Saturday.
Alexis Barba, who also trained Make Music for Me to win the Pasadena Stakes on
the turf one race earlier, has not made any definite plans for Alphie's Bet's
next start. One race he won't be entered is the Santa Anita Derby since that
will be Make Music for Me's final Kentucky Derby prep.
HORSES TO WATCH
Three horses make the list this week, including Trappe Shot, a three-year-old
chestnut colt that will be turning heads as the year moves along.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the $850,000 yearling purchase pummeled a field
of 10 maidens last month by 10 1/4-lengths, running the six furlongs in a
solid 1:09 2/5 seconds.
Since Trappe Shot has only started once in 2010, it's doubtful he'll be on the
Kentucky Derby trail but he's one to watch down the road.
The two other horses are three-year-old fillies that ran last weekend at
Gulfstream Park.
Wicked Charm finished sixth in her debut on Sunday - a one mile maiden event
on the turf. She was 26-1 that day primarily due to her post position. It's
not easy to win from the 11 spot at one mile on the weeds due to the short run
to the first turn. She also broke slowly from the gate, compounding her
position.
Still, she closed strongly, running her final quarter in 23 4/5 to finish
sixth, beaten by only six lengths. The fact she was 26-1, along with her
sixth-place finish, might help getting decent odds in her next start. And by
the way, she's by Ghostzapper and a half-sister to English Channel - the 2007
Eclipse Award-winning male turf horse.
Apple Charlotte, the other three-year-old filly, finished second in Saturday's
Herecomesthebride Stakes at nine furlongs on the turf. She had a boatload of
trouble checking early in the race and then clipping the heels of Upperline at
the top of the stretch. Despite the tough trip, she closed stoutly for second,
missing the victory by less than a length.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Dublin; 2) Super Saver; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Lookin At Lucky; 5) Alphie's
Bet; 6) Caracortado; 7) Awesome Act; 8) Odysseus; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11)
Connemara; 12) Uptowncharlybrown.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
To visit this online sports book got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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