Rachel Alexandra in good shape after Personal Ensign loss
Horseracing Betting Lines
08/30/2010 -
Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Horse of the Year Rachel
Alexandra came out of Sunday's upset loss in the Personal Ensign Stakes in
good condition and will return to training on Wednesday.
Trainer Steve Asmussen said that he and majority owner Jess Jackson will talk
about the filly's future following her gallop on Wednesday morning.
"How she comes back to the track is our focus now," said Asmussen. "You don't
want to lose, you're not planning on losing, but you can remember what she's
won and what she's done for us. My feelings for her today are the same as my
feelings for her the day after the Woodward or Preakness.
"I think there's a great amount of pride in her and belief in herself. She has
a tremendous amount of strength in her, and it's been called upon before and
it will be called upon again."
The Personal Ensign was Rachel's first career start at 1 1/4-miles. She set
the pace with Delaware Handicap champ Life At Ten right behind. The other
three females were more than 10-lengths behind on the backstretch.
Sent off as the 2-5 favorite, Rachel put away Life At Ten on the final turn
and had a clear lead at the top of the stretch. Persistently, 21-1 at post-
time, came charging down the stretch to catch the favorite near the finish and
win by a length.
Trainer Shug McGaughey said Monday that Persistently also came out of the race
in good condition.
"She's doing well, I'm tired, but she seemed to come back fine," said the
Hall of Fame trainer who also conditioned Personal Ensign. "A lot of times it
doesn't hit them until a couple of days later, but she cooled out great. We've
retooled (her schedule) to point for the Beldame ($350,000 1 1/8-miles at
Belmont Park on Saturday, October 2); that's our next stop."
Life At Ten, the 9-5 second pick to Rachel, is also fine and could be entered
in the Beldame versus Persistently.
"She was tired, no doubt about it," said trainer Todd Pletcher. "In that
situation, if you're going to try to win, and no one else has any speed - if
our objective was to be Grade 1-placed or to secure second, we would have
approached it maybe a little differently. We wanted to try to win, and
ultimately got tired doing that.
"I don't think we'll need to run her at 1 1/4-miles again."
Pletcher indicated that Life At Ten will be pointed toward the 1 1/8-mile
Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic at Churchill Downs on November 5.
<< Roddick rolls at U.S. Open
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Roddick was an easy opening-round winner Monday at the U.S. Open.
The ninth-seeded former world No. 1 Roddick, celebrating his 28th birthday on
Monday, blasted hel
<< Shunted aside by Sabres, Kennedy signs with Rangers
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Rangers agreed to terms with
free-agent forward Tim Kennedy on Monday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but multiple outlets revealed it is for
one year.
The Buffalo Sabres waived
<< Mascherano completes Barca switch
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona announced on Monday that the
club has completed the signing of Liverpool midfielder Javier Mascherano.
Mascherano, 26, signed a four-year deal with the Catalan side on Monday after
completin
<< McMurray feeling little pressure on making the Chase
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With two races to go before the "Chase for
the Sprint Cup" begins at New Hampshire, Daytona 500 champion and Brickyard
400 winner Jamie McMurray says he won't be disappointed if he doesn't qualify
for the playof
<< Rockies' Gonzalez takes home NL weekly award
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez
was named the National League Player of the Week for the period ending August
29.
In six games last week, Gonzalez hit 12-of-22 (.545) with four home runs and
Rangers activate OF Cruz from DL >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers activated outfielder
Nelson Cruz from the 15-day disabled list among several roster moves on
Monday.
The 30-year-old has landed on the DL three times this season -- all w
USA squeezes by Brazil to stay undefeated at Worlds >>
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Durant recorded 27 points and 10
rebounds, as the United States held off Brazil, 70-68, to remain undefeated at
the 2010 FIBA World Championship.
It was the first test at this tournament f
McGregor's family issues statement >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The family of late Colorado Rockies
president Keli McGregor issued a statement Monday, saying he died of a rare
virus that infected the heart muscle.
McGregor was found dead in a Salt Lake City
Heat agree to terms with second-round pick Butler >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat signed 2010 second-round pick
Da'Sean Butler to a contract on Monday.
Terms were not announced, per team policy.
The 6-foot-7 forward was taken with the 42nd overall selection after playin
Cowboys, two employees settle lawsuit from training camp accident >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Dallas Cowboys employees have agreed
to settle a lawsuit against companies run by franchise owner Jerry Jones.
The Morning News reported on Monday that Rich Behm and Joe DeCamillis will
each be p
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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