Bayern's Altintop to play key role against Inter
Soccer Betting Lines
05/20/2010 -
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich's Hamit Altintop has sat on the
bench a lot this season, going unused in more than 20 matches, but don't look
for him there Saturday in the Champions League final against Inter Milan.
Coach Louis van Gaal left the Turkey international on the bench for the entire
match 15 times during a 22-game span at one point this season.
Altintop made just start one after the winter break until late March, when he
was thrust back into an important role in the Champions League.
Van Gaal used Altintop in the first game of the Champions League quarterfinals
against Manchester United with Dutch winger Arjen Robben out. Altintop was on
the field against Schalke a few days later as well, but went back to the bench
and even went unused in the ensuing weeks.
Altintop continued to play his role on the Bundesliga and Pokal Cup champions
without causing a problem, and replaced suspended winger Franck Ribery against
Lyon in the second leg of the Champions League semifinals.
Bayern, with Altintop playing a big role, won the second leg 3-0 in France to
seal the series on aggregate 4-0.
With Ribery also suspended for the final, Van Gaal's obvious choice is to hand
Altintop another start Saturday at the Bernabeu in Madrid at 2:45 p.m. (ET).
"Hamit has shown what he can do," Robben, who leads the club with 23 goals in
all competitions, said on the team's website.
Altintop has 12 starts this season and has come off the bench 13 times, but in
France a few weeks ago played his best match of the season. He assisted on one
of Ivica Olic's three goals, and was involved all over the pitch.
Although Altintop has played a quieter role this season, he joked "I've always
been around, even if you weren't aware of it." Although he has just one goal -
in the Pokal Cup - he is a better defensive player than Ribery and can also be
a weapon in the attack.
Altintop will try to compensate for Ribery's absence again, this time against
a Jose-Mourinho led Inter side that disposed of defending champion Barcelona
in the semifinals.
Bayern advanced to the final the hard way, losing 3-2 in the second leg of its
Round of 16 series against Fiorentina and quarterfinal clash against United to
advance on away goals following 4-4 aggregate draws.
Although Bayern rolled past Lyon, which knocked out Real Madrid earlier in the
tournament, Inter Milan provides an even tougher challenge. With the exception
of Ribery, though, Van Gaal has his first-choice lineup.
If Altintop, who played a great Euro 2008 tournament for Turkey, plays another
game like he did against Lyon - he should have space to roam with Inter sure
to focus on Robben - Van Gaal and Bayern won't feel Ribery's loss as much.
Bayern is searching for its fifth Champions League title, with its last win in
2001 against Valencia. Bayern also won three straight from 1974-76.
Inter also has to compensate for a banned player, with influential midfielder
Thiago Motta suspended for the final. Inter is vying for its third Champions
League crown, and first in 45 years. Inter won in 1964 and 1965.
Mourinho's plan to replace Motta won't be known until his squad gets onto the
field, but the presence of Wesley Sneijder - who like Robben was sold by Real
Madrid last summer - will go a long way again for the Italian champions.
Bayern and Inter have met four previous times in European play, with Bayern on
top with two wins and a draw. The teams last played in the 2006-07 Champions
League, when the teams tied the first leg 1-1 in Munich and Bayern won 2-0 in
Italy in the group stage.
That was before Van Gaal and Mourinho arrived at their current clubs. Van Gaal
and Mourinho have both won the Champions League before, Van Gaal with Ajax in
1995 and Mourinho with FC Porto in 2004.
Van Gaal was a mentor for Mourinho, widely regarded as one of the best coach's
in the world, when he was head man at Barcelona and Mourinho was an assistant.
Saturday's final will prove if the teacher is smarter than the student.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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